IN SEASON · WEEK 4 · VALUES AS OF SEP 30, 2026
Sell the name, buy the points.
OPEN THE TRADE MACHINE
THE 2026 DRAFT BOARD · AS OF SEP 5, 2026 · GRADED IN JANUARY
Consensus ranks 6 quarterbacksinside the first twelve picks.The wolves rank 1.
Updated Sep 5, 2026
Projected value above replacement, normalized by position. Not name recognition. Not last year's touchdowns. Injury, regression, and situation flags move the score from there. Where two players land inside the noise floor, the call is ours and we say so.
Joe Burrow · QB · CIN
Δ ECR
The market drafts Burrow at pick 4. The wolves rank him 48. He is one of the live darts, and a dart is only a dart at dart prices. At his current cost the ceiling is already paid for. The games history is the flag: real time missed in multiple recent seasons. That risk is priced into the wolves rank, and it caps the badge. Let someone else pay the toll. The board is deep enough behind him.
Caleb Williams · QB · CHI
Δ ECR
The market drafts Williams at pick 13. The wolves rank him 50. He sits in the dead zone. Priced like the elite, projects like the middle, and the middle runs eighteen deep. The points do not back the price. Let someone else pay the toll. The board is deep enough behind him.
Trey McBride · TE · ARI
Δ ECR
The market lets McBride fall to pick 41. The wolves rank him 11 overall. At tight end there are two real edges and he is one of them. The flat starts right below him, which is exactly why the gap matters. Let the room chase names. When he is there in round 1, take him and move on.
THE PHILOSOPHY
These ranks are not meant to be drafted in order. The formula finds value against expert consensus in superflex, half PPR: who to target, when to move, and who will still be there later. The room drafts the expert ranks. You draft the gaps.
And take your guys. Lamar Jackson sits sixteen spots above Joe Burrow on this board, and the projection barely separates them. That is a coin flip, not a ranking. The board's job is not to pick for you, it is to stop you spending a second round pick on a player priced two rounds high. That is what the tiers are for. They show you what waiting costs.