The RAD Ten.

The gap between him and the quarterback you can take four rounds later is smaller than the gap between the back you give up and that back's replacement. Nothing here says he is bad. It says the price is a first round pick and the surplus is not.

The biggest single gap on the board at 41 spots, and the most aggressive number we have. Our production input rewards realized weekly finishes rather than what a healthy season projects, and the opportunity input cannot separate him from the six arms behind him on volume.

The smallest fade on the list and the only quarterback we hold anywhere near the top. He is the one arm whose floor is worth an early pick, because he is almost always top three even in the years he is not first. Ten is still a long way from one.

Third overall is the price of a settled top tier arm. He is a live dart, which is a real thing to own at a price that reflects the risk. Three does not reflect the risk.

From roughly QB7 through QB17 the weekly line goes flat, and the market cannot tell where inside that flat he lands. Pricing him sixth assumes it can.

The thesis in one player. A three down back who is also the goal line back is the rarest combination we track, and running back replacement level in half PPR is brutal in a way quarterback replacement level is not. Miss on him and you start RB25. Miss on the quarterback going at 1.02 and you start the quarterback going four rounds later, which costs about five points a week.

Our opportunity input is target share weighted rather than raw catch based, and half PPR does not inflate a target hog the way full PPR does, so he holds under this scoring in a spot where a lot of volume receivers slide.

Twenty nine spots, and it is a scarcity read rather than a player read. We measure every player against replacement at his own position, and the drop from a top tier tight end to a streamer is the steepest cliff in the format. The market prices tight ends against the whole board. We price them against the tight ends you would otherwise actually be starting.

Same engine as Gibbs, one tier down and far cheaper. Efficiency heavy production plus real receiving work, which in half PPR is worth points without being the full PPR inflation people are guarding against.

Thirty three spots, the largest raw gap in either direction, and the only name on this list you can still comfortably get. It is an opportunity read on a projected three down role against a market rank that is still pricing the name rather than the workload.