Every term the wolves use. Filter by category.
Draft
Average Draft Position. The average pick at which a player is selected across a large sample of drafts. A player with an ADP of 24 is typically drafted with the 24th pick overall. ADP reflects market consensus. What real drafters actually do, not what analysts recommend.
WhyADP is the market. The gap between ADP and WOLVES rank is where draft edges live.
Draft
Superflex ADP. Draft position in SFLEX-specific draft pools, typically Underdog or similar platforms. SFLEX ADP differs from standard ADP because quarterbacks are dramatically more valuable when a second can start in the flex spot.
WhySFLEX ADP is the correct market benchmark for this format. Standard ADP underpays QBs. SFLEX ADP prices them correctly and still undervalues the elite ones.
Draft
Value Based Drafting. A method for converting player projections into draft rankings by measuring each player's value above the last startable player at their position. In a 12-team SFLEX league: QB baseline = QB25 (~17.7 pts/wk), RB baseline = RB25 (~11.7 pts/wk), WR baseline = WR25 (~11.3 pts/wk), TE baseline = TE13 (~8.2 pts/wk).
WhyRaw projection points cannot be compared across positions. A QB projecting 22 pts/week has less draft value than an RB projecting 22 pts/week because the QB replacement level is higher. VBD captures that difference. It is why elite RBs go before elite QBs in round 1 of SFLEX drafts. The data supports this.
“The wolves don't compare raw numbers across positions. That's how you end up taking a QB first overall in a format that should reward RB scarcity.”
Draft
A roster format that includes a SuperFlex (SFLEX) position that can be filled by a quarterback in addition to the standard lineup. Effectively makes each team start two quarterbacks, dramatically increasing QB value and changing optimal draft strategy.
WhyStandard leagues are a different sport. In SFLEX, the second QB slot creates genuine positional scarcity at quarterback. Not just at the top, but throughout the position.
Draft
The percentage of a team's total pass attempts directed at a specific receiver. A player with 30% target share in a 35-attempt-per-game offense sees roughly 10-11 targets per week.
WhyThe most reliable predictor of receiving volume floor. Target share is stickier than touchdowns. It reflects role, not luck. 25%+ in a high-volume offense means weekly relevance.
Draft
The distance the ball travels through the air from the line of scrimmage to where it is caught or falls incomplete. Measures how deep in the route a receiver is being targeted.
WhyAir yards correlate with big-play opportunity and TD upside. A receiver with high air yards but modest catches is either struggling with drops, poor quarterback play, or is due for positive regression.
Draft
Weighted Opportunity Rating. Combines target share and air yard share into a single metric. Developed by the team at rbsdraft.com. WOPR = (1.5 × target share) + (0.7 × air yard share).
WhyThe single best measure of how much of a passing offense flows through a given receiver. Players above 0.50 WOPR are true WR1s regardless of touchdown output.
Metrics
The percentage of offensive snaps a player is on the field for. A running back with 60%+ snap share is the clear starter. Below 40% suggests a committee or limited role.
WhyUsage floor. A player can't score if they're not on the field.
Metrics
The percentage of pass plays a receiver runs a route on. High route rate means the coaching staff is choosing to involve the player in the passing game even when they aren't the target.
WhyRoute rate decoupled from target share reveals players who are open and ignored. Often a sign targets will follow. Route rate also predicts snap share stability.
Metrics
Receiver Air Conversion Ratio. Receiving yards divided by air yards. Measures how efficiently a receiver converts their air yard opportunity into actual receiving yards. League average is roughly 0.55.
WhyHigh RACR means a receiver is generating yards after catch or is consistently open underneath. Low RACR may indicate a contested-catch specialist who is boom-or-bust.
Metrics
Average depth of target (aDOT). The average air yards per target for a receiver. High aDOT indicates a deep threat. Low aDOT indicates a short-route specialist.
WhyContext for air yards. A receiver with high air yards but low RACR and high aDOT is a big-play-or-nothing option. Useful for identifying TD upside vs floor.
Laser Wolves
RAD stands for Rankings Algorithm Delta. Laser Wolves' proprietary 0–99 player rating. Built from three inputs: projected season production, positional usage and opportunity, and schedule strength. Scores are then converted to draft rankings by measuring value above the last startable player at that position. The score is then adjusted for performance and injury flags. No human opinions enter the formula.
WhyThe score measures how good a player is. The rank measures how valuable he is to draft. Those are different questions. A QB scoring 25 pts/week has less draft value than an RB scoring 22 pts/week if the QB replacement level is 17 pts and the RB replacement level is 12 pts.
“The score is the score. The rank is what you do with it at the draft table.”
Laser Wolves
RAD stands for Rankings Algorithm Delta. The difference between a player's SFLEX ADP rank and their WOLVES rank. Calculated as: SFLEX ADP rank minus WOLVES rank. Positive delta means the market drafts the player later than the algorithm says he should go. He will be available when the wolves expect him.
WhyA delta of +30 means the market will still have him sitting there 30 picks after WOLVES says he should be gone. Plan for him. Don't reach. He'll be there.
“Don't reach. He'll be there. The wolves planned for this.”
Laser Wolves
A player the algorithm rates significantly higher than analyst consensus. WOLVES ranks them 12 or more spots earlier than ECR, with a score above 52. The market is sleeping. The wolves are not.
WhyYou know where they'll be. You don't reach. You execute the plan. This is the draft edge in one flag.
“The wolves don't reach. The values exist so they don't have to.”
Laser Wolves
A player the algorithm rates significantly lower than analyst consensus. Analysts have them inside the top 80 overall, WOLVES ranks them 20 or more spots later, and their score is below 75. The market is reaching. The wolves wait.
WhyOverpaying costs two things. The player underperforms. And you missed someone better at that pick. Fade flags are both a warning and an opportunity.
Draft
A draft-only format where rosters carry over the full season but lineups set themselves automatically each week. The system starts your highest-scoring players at each position after the games are played. No waiver wire. No lineup decisions. No weekly management.
WhyRewards drafting depth and upside over floor. A boom-or-bust WR4 who goes off twice is worth more than a safe WR2 who scores 10 every week. Drafting strategy shifts entirely toward ceiling.
“Best ball is the format that punishes safe drafting. The wolves don't draft safe.”
Draft
Every team receives an equal budget, typically $200, and bids on players in real time. Any team can acquire any player. The market sets every price. No draft order, no pick position luck.
WhyThe most skill-intensive draft format. A player's value is exactly what someone pays for them. Budget management, player valuation, and reading the room are all separable skills. The best drafter in the room wins more often than in snake drafts.
Draft
A keeper format where rosters carry over from year to year. Teams draft rookies, develop young players, and trade veterans. A single team can dominate for a decade with the right young core.
WhyChanges player valuation completely. A 22-year-old WR2 in a bad offense is worth more than a 29-year-old WR1 in a great one. Age and draft capital matter more than current production. The long game is the only game.
Draft
The backup to a high-value starter, drafted specifically to protect against injury. If the starter goes down, the handcuff inherits the workload and the fantasy points.
WhyIn superflex leagues, losing a starting QB to injury is survivable because you carry two. Losing your RB1 with no handcuff is not. The question is always: who gets the carries if this player misses eight weeks?
Draft
A draft strategy that avoids running backs in the first three or four rounds, loading up on premium WRs and QBs early before targeting high-upside RBs in rounds 5 through 10.
WhyBuilt on the observation that RBs are the most injury-prone position and the most replaceable on the waiver wire. The strategy accepts a weak RB floor in exchange for elite WR and QB production. Works better in deep leagues with strong waiver wire access.
Draft
A draft strategy that prioritizes elite running backs in the first two rounds, accepting weaker WR production in exchange for a stable, high-floor RB core.
WhyBuilt on the observation that elite RBs are the scarcest resource in fantasy. An RB1 who sees 20 carries and 6 targets per game is irreplaceable. You cannot find that on the waiver wire in October. Counter-strategy to Zero RB.
Draft
A hybrid draft strategy that takes one elite RB in round 1 or 2, then pivots entirely to WR and QB for the next several rounds.
WhyAttempts to capture the best of Robust RB and Zero RB simultaneously. One elite, workhorse RB as the foundation. Premium WRs for ceiling. The rest of the RB depth filled late. Works best when a true bell-cow RB is available at the turn of rounds 1 and 2.
Draft
A player projected to significantly outperform their draft position. Usually a player in a new situation, a second-year breakout candidate, or someone inheriting a larger role than the market has priced in.
WhyIdentifying sleepers before the market does is where draft edges are made. The wolves do not chase name recognition. They price situations and opportunity. A player drafted in round 9 who produces like a round 4 player wins drafts.
Draft
A player who significantly underperforms their draft cost. Common among veterans coming off injury, touchdown-dependent RBs, and players in new offenses who fail to adapt.
WhyBusts cost twice. The player produces nothing. And you spent a valuable pick that could have been someone else. Bust risk is why the wolves track age cliffs, TD regression, and new offense flags. The market prices reputation. The algorithm prices reality.
Draft
Expert Consensus Rank. FantasyPros aggregates rankings from dozens of analysts and averages them into a single consensus position for every player. ECR is the industry benchmark for where the analyst community thinks a player should be drafted.
WhyECR is not the truth. It is the consensus. The gap between ECR and WOLVES rank is where draft edges live. When analysts have a player at ECR 35 and WOLVES has him at rank 18, the algorithm sees value the crowd is missing. That gap is the product.
Draft
The relative draft value of a position based on how quickly production drops off down the depth chart. A position with high scarcity has a steep drop between the elite tier and the replacement level.
WhyIn superflex, QB scarcity is the defining variable. The gap between Allen and the QB12 is enormous. The gap between WR1 and WR12 is smaller. Scarcity is why QBs go earlier in SF than standard, and why missing on the elite QBs early costs more than missing on an elite WR.
Draft
The NFL draft round and pick number a player was selected with. Early draft capital, meaning round 1 or 2, correlates strongly with the opportunity and investment a team has made in a player.
WhyTeams do not spend first-round picks on players they plan to use sparingly. High draft capital predicts role, targets, and carries better than most statistics. A rookie WR taken 12th overall in the NFL draft is a different asset than one taken in round 4, regardless of their current stats.
Draft
The week an NFL team does not play. Every team has one bye week per season, typically between weeks 5 and 14. Players on bye score zero fantasy points that week.
WhyBye week management matters most at QB in superflex. If both your QBs share a bye week, you have no starter that week. Draft QBs with different bye weeks. In standard leagues this is minor. In SF it is a real constraint.
Draft
A grouping of players with similar projected value and draft priority. Players within a tier are largely interchangeable. The drop from the bottom of one tier to the top of the next represents a meaningful decrease in expected production.
WhyTiers change how you draft. When you are on the clock at pick 1.08 and three players from the same tier are available, the right move is to take the one that fills the biggest roster need. When a tier runs out before your pick, adjust to the next tier down.
Draft
A standard-league strategy of waiting until rounds 8 through 10 to draft a quarterback, on the theory that QB production is deep enough to find a starter late.
WhyThis strategy does not apply in superflex. In SF, elite QB production is scarce and waiting means settling for QB8 or worse. Late Round QB is the most common mistake standard-league players make when they join SF leagues for the first time.
“There is no late round QB in superflex. There is only early, late, and too late.”
Draft
A player's ceiling outcome. The best realistic season they could produce given their situation, opportunity, and health. High upside players tend to have boom-or-bust profiles where their floor is low but their ceiling is elite.
WhyUpside matters differently by roster spot. Your QB1 needs a floor. Your FLEX spot can absorb more risk for more ceiling. Knowing which roster spots need upside versus floor shapes how to value every pick.
Draft
A player's worst realistic outcome given their situation. A high-floor player produces consistently even in bad weeks. Low variance, predictable, reliable.
WhyFloor matters most at the positions you cannot afford to leave empty. Your QB2 in superflex needs a floor. Missing a week from your QB2 is as damaging as missing a week from your QB1. Floor players are not glamorous but they win weeks when your studs disappoint.
Scoring
Points Per Reception. Each catch earns one bonus point on top of standard yardage and touchdown scoring. The dominant scoring format in competitive fantasy football.
WhyPPR increases the value of pass-catchers, slot receivers, and receiving backs. A RB who catches 8 passes per game is worth significantly more in PPR than standard. Target share becomes the most predictive stat in the game.
Scoring
Each reception scores 0.5 bonus points. A middle ground between standard and full PPR. Reduces but does not eliminate the edge held by high-volume pass-catchers.
WhyLess common than full PPR in competitive leagues but still widely used. Player values shift slightly. High-volume receivers lose a small edge relative to PPR. Running backs who catch passes are still rewarded but less dramatically.
Scoring
No reception bonus. Points come from touchdowns and yardage only. The original fantasy scoring format, now rare in competitive leagues.
WhyDramatically overvalues goal-line backs and undervalues slot receivers. Almost all serious leagues have moved to PPR or half PPR.
Scoring
The point value assigned to a passing touchdown. Standard leagues award 4 points. Many SF and competitive leagues award 6 points, making passing touchdowns equal to rushing and receiving touchdowns.
Why6-point passing touchdowns increase QB value across the board. Know your league's setting before you draft. The difference between 4PT and 6PT passing TDs changes the value of every QB on the board.
Scoring
Additional points awarded for reaching yardage thresholds. Common bonuses include 100 rushing yards, 100 receiving yards, and 300 passing yards. Some leagues use tiered bonuses at multiple thresholds.
WhyBonus scoring rewards ceiling performances and increases the value of workhorses over committee backs. A RB who hits 100 yards 10 times per season is worth far more in bonus leagues than his raw stats suggest. Always check your league settings before valuing players.
Roster
A roster spot that can be filled by a running back, wide receiver, or tight end. The number of FLEX spots in a league determines how many players you need at each position.
WhyMore FLEX spots increase the value of all skill positions proportionally. In SF leagues, the SuperFlex spot is effectively a second FLEX that only quarterbacks can fill optimally.
Roster
A roster position that can be filled by any skill position including quarterback. In practice, starting a quarterback in this spot is almost always the optimal play, making superflex leagues effectively two-QB leagues.
WhyThe SuperFlex spot creates scarcity at the quarterback position that does not exist in standard leagues. Every team needs two viable QBs. Elite QBs become the most valuable players in the draft. The entire strategic framework of the game changes.
Roster
Injured Reserve. A roster spot reserved for injured players that does not count against the active roster limit. Allows teams to retain injured players without sacrificing a usable roster spot.
WhyIR slots enable smarter roster management. You can stash a high-value player through a 4-week injury without cutting someone else. In SF, this is especially valuable for QBs. Never use your IR slot on a player who is unlikely to return before the playoffs.
Roster
In dynasty leagues, a development squad of typically 4 to 6 players who do not count against the active roster. Usually restricted to players in their first or second NFL season.
WhyAllows dynasty teams to hold promising rookies and young players without burning active roster spots. A wide receiver drafted in round 3 of the NFL draft who is not yet fantasy-relevant can sit on the taxi squad for a season while developing.
Metrics
Rushing yards gained after initial contact with a defender. Measures a runner's ability to create yards independently of their offensive line.
WhySeparates scheme-dependent backs from those who create value on their own. A high YAC runner is valuable in any offense. A low YAC runner is only as good as his line. The wolves weight this when evaluating RBs in bad offenses.
Metrics
Catch rate on catchable targets only. Filters out passes that were clearly uncatchable before grading a receiver's hands. Raw catch rate includes drops caused by the quarterback, not the receiver.
WhyA receiver with a 60% raw catch rate on a bad quarterback may have an 85% true catch rate. True catch rate reveals who actually has reliable hands versus who is being let down by their passer.
Metrics
A receiver's percentage of their team's passing attempts inside the opponent's 20-yard line. The strongest single predictor of touchdown upside for wide receivers and tight ends.
WhyRed zone targets convert to touchdowns at a far higher rate than other targets. A receiver who sees 30% of their team's red zone targets is going to score touchdowns. Red zone target share is sticky across a season.
Metrics
Rushing attempts from the opponent's 5-yard line. The most predictive metric for running back touchdown upside. Goal-line carries are the most valuable carries in fantasy.
WhyThe RB who gets the ball at the 1-yard line is the RB who scores touchdowns. Some teams use their best pass-catching back on the goal line. Others use their heaviest back. Knowing which matters enormously.
Metrics
A player's percentage of their team's total fantasy points produced. Combines rushing, receiving, and passing contributions into a single usage metric.
WhyA player with 28% market share on a 25-point-per-game offense is more valuable than one with 28% market share on a 15-point-per-game offense. Market share measures role stability across the full season.
Metrics
A receiver's air yards as a percentage of their team's total passing air yards. Measures how much of the team's downfield passing game flows through a given player.
WhyCombined with target share to calculate WOPR. A receiver with high air yard share but modest catches may be getting open downfield without seeing the ball. That inefficiency tends to correct. Air yard share is sticky. Catchable targets follow.
Metrics
The percentage of a running back's carries that gain 15 or more yards. Identifies explosive runners who can produce big plays regardless of volume.
WhyVolume is valuable but ceiling matters. A back with a 12% breakaway rate who gets 15 carries can produce a big game any week. A back with 2% breakaway rate needs 25 carries to reach the same ceiling.
Metrics
The NFL's official tracking data, collected via chips embedded in player equipment. Captures separation at catch, route depth, yards after catch, passer pressure, and dozens of metrics not available in traditional box scores.
WhyNGS separates what happened from what should have happened. A receiver with poor stats who consistently creates separation is being let down by his quarterback, not his talent.
Metrics
Pro Football Focus proprietary player grades on a 0 to 100 scale, assigned by analysts reviewing every snap of every game. Measures individual performance independent of teammates and results.
WhyUseful for identifying players whose fantasy production does not reflect their underlying talent. Blocking quality, quarterback accuracy, and play-calling all affect fantasy stats. PFF grades try to isolate individual performance from context.
Strategy
Drafting a quarterback and one or more of his pass-catchers on the same roster. When the QB throws for 400 yards and 4 touchdowns, the receiver benefits directly. Points accrue twice from the same game.
WhyIn best ball especially, correlation is a core strategy. A big game from a stacked QB and receiver scores points twice. Particularly powerful in SF where you are already starting two QBs and can double-stack a game you project to be high-scoring.
Strategy
Pairing players whose production tends to move in opposite directions. Two running backs from teams in a projected close game is a classic example. One team will likely run the ball more. One back benefits. The other is less productive.
WhyUseful for managing variance. A roster with purely correlated players either dominates or collapses. Negative correlation smooths the floor at the cost of some ceiling. More valuable in head-to-head leagues where consistency matters than in best ball where you want upside.
Strategy
The statistical tendency for outlier performances to move back toward their historical average over time. Players who score 20 touchdowns in one season tend to score fewer the next. Target share and usage rate are far more stable than touchdowns.
WhyThis is the foundation of the TD Regression flag. Touchdowns are the most volatile fantasy stat. The market prices last year's touchdowns as if they will repeat. The algorithm prices the trend.
Strategy
The probability that a player misses significant game time, based on age, position, injury history, and playing style. Running backs carry the highest injury risk of any position. Speed backs and those who absorb contact in pass protection are especially vulnerable.
WhyInjury risk does not mean do not draft a player. It means price the risk correctly. A running back with a history of soft tissue injuries should cost one round less than his production projects. The injury prone flag adjusts the WOLVES rank accordingly.
Strategy
The value surrendered by choosing one player over another. Taking a player 5 picks early means missing a higher-value player at that spot.
WhyEvery draft pick has an opportunity cost. The RAD delta tells you exactly what it is. A +18 delta means WOLVES estimates the market is leaving 18 picks of value on the table by not taking this player earlier. Understanding opportunity cost is the difference between drafting by name and drafting by value.
Laser Wolves
A context-based adjustment applied to a player's WOLVES rank when a confirmed offseason change improves or worsens their outlook. Backfield clearings, quarterback upgrades, depth chart rises, and offensive coordinator changes are tracked as situation flags. Each flag carries a confidence weight and is applied before ranking.
WhyThe projection data the algorithm uses is based on historical performance. It cannot fully price a change that happened last week. Situation flags bridge that gap. They are transparent. You can see which flag applied and why.
Laser Wolves
The probability that a given situation change produces the expected outcome. Backfield Cleared carries 75% confidence because historical data strongly supports that the remaining back inherits the workload. Depth Chart Rise carries 60% because coaching decisions and schemes do not always follow depth charts.
WhyLower confidence flags produce smaller rank adjustments. A 50% confidence flag adds 2 rank spots, not 7. Confidence weighting prevents the algorithm from overreacting to unconfirmed or speculative changes.
Laser Wolves
Coming soon. A grouping of players within the WOLVES rankings where the gap between tiers represents a meaningful drop in projected value above replacement. When players from the same tier are available at your pick, take the one that fills your biggest roster need. When a tier runs out before your pick, adjust to the next tier down.
WhyTiers change the decision at the draft table from who is the best overall player to who is the best available given what you need. The wolves are building this for the 2026 season.
Edge Flags
High touchdown total last season. 91.8% of players in this situation score fewer TDs the following year. The market prices last year's touchdowns. The formula prices the trend.
WhyTouchdowns are random. Targets are not. A player riding a TD spike will see their fantasy output compress even if their role stays identical.
“Touchdowns regress. Targets don't.”
Edge Flags
The statistical decline point for NFL skill position players by age: RB at 29, WR at 31, QB and TE at 33. Production doesn't taper. It drops sharply, often in a single season with little warning.
WhyThe age cliff is not a maybe. It is the most consistent finding in football analytics. Players above threshold carry meaningful production risk regardless of recent performance.
Edge Flags
The tendency for players with exceptional rookie seasons to underperform in year 2. Strongest for QBs: statistically significant year-2 decline for above-average rookie QBs. For WRs: 35% with 30+ rookie catches declined in year 2. Meaning 65% held or improved.
WhyThe slump is real but not guaranteed. The flag notes the risk. The confidence weight reflects that it applies about 45% of the time.
