Aaron Rodgers

The case

The market drafts Rodgers at pick 127. The wolves rank him 147. He is a streamer. The replacement line is close enough that the wolves will not spend a real pick to beat it. He is 42. The wolves price the cliff before it shows up in a box score, not after. The games history is the flag: real time missed in multiple recent seasons. That risk is priced into the wolves rank, and it caps the badge. Let someone else pay the toll. The board is deep enough behind him.